As an Authoritarian Trump Threatens AUKUS, Australia Should Rethink Its US Alliance

The USA is Australia’s closest ally. Yet, right now, it’s president, Donald Trump is attempting to establish a dictatorship, he’s unleashed a military-led assault on the US domestic population, he’s warned that war with China is potentially “imminent”, and he’s been bullying other nations, both allies and foe, into submission, and at present, Australia is one of the nation’s he’s targeting.

The Pentagon announced on 12 June that it will be reviewing the AU$368 billion AUKUS deal, which involves nuclear-powered submarines (SSN) that, despite US ability to pull the pin at any time, the Albanese government has based our nation’s entire defence policy around, and while our defence minister Richard Marles swears the review is normal, there are two reasons why it reads as a threat.

The first is the Trump administration has been increasingly bullying Australia, and many other allies, into lifting its defence spend, and our PM Anthony Albanese has publicly refused this, while Australia placed sanctions on two extremist Israeli ministers this week due to violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, which in terms of the opinion of the White House, Trump or no Trump, is a big no-no.

The US is set to review AUKUS to ensure that it’s in keeping with its “American First” agenda. The UK’s Starmer government reviewed AUKUS after it came to office and reaffirmed its commitment, which Marles considers reason not to be disturbed by the latest Pentagon announcement. But there were no easily read threats involved in Britain’s decision to hold its AUKUS review last year.

Australian politicians of all shapes and sizes are now declaring that this is the opportunity for our nation to get out of the increasingly unviable AUKUS deal. Indeed, some consider this signals the chance to drastically alter this nation’s closeknit relationship with the US completely, especially as it’s spiralling into authoritarianism. But simply pulling the plug right now, could be a dangerous move.

The highly flawed submarine deal

The Pentagon has placed US defence policy secretary Elbridge Colby in charge of the AUKUS review. Colby has become the chief US critic of the AUKUS deal over recent years. He told the Herald last August that as the US faces the prospect of war with China at any time, why would it give away “this crown jewel asset, when we most need it”. But he’s an “AUKUS agnostic”, “not an atheist”.

Announced by former PM Scott Morrison in September 2021, the AUKUS deal involves this country acquiring its own SSN. According to the plan, the US is to commence selling Australia from three to five second-hand Virginia class submarines, commencing in 2032, while in the early 2040s Australia will commence building five UK-designed AUKUS SSN in South Australia.

Colby could easily declare AUKUS unviable as in order for Australia to commence receiving Virginia boats early next decade, the US must first satisfy its own requirement of a fleet of 66 Virginia class SSN, and it currently needs 17 more. To make both US domestic and Australian needs the US must be building 2.3 SSN a year, however it’s only producing 1.3 annually and it hasn’t budgeted for anymore.

The US legislation relating to AUKUS allows the US president to refuse handing over a Virginia SSN slated for sale to Australia. A new agreement established last August permits any party to pull out of the AUKUS deal, which lasts until 31 December 2075, by giving a year’s notice that it is doing so.

The Australian SSN would give this country the potential to attack China, which is the point. However, last August,  the US Congressional Research Service pointed out that the AUKUS agreement already involves the establishment of Submarine Rotational Force – West in WA, which will see US and UK SSN rotating through a base at HMAS Stirling. So, there is really no need for Australian-owned subs.

Due to all these holes in the plan, the AUKUS deal has always had strong critics at home, however the Albanese government has embraced the deal with glee.

And with yesterday’s announcement, key AUKUS critic former Australian PM Paul Keating has suggested the US review “might very well be the moment Washington saves Australia from itself”.

The White House takes LA

Currently, there are large peaceful protests and more forceful rioting going on in Los Angeles, which was sparked by vicious Trump-ordered 6 June-commenced Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids on public places aimed at detaining and deporting undocumented immigrants, as part of a mass deportation of noncitizens program the president has unleashed.

In response, the Trump administration has illegally deployed 4,000 National Guard troops and 700 marines to the streets of California’s largest city. The Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass and the California governor Gavin Newsom have both been clear that they consider the ICE raids were designed to provoke a response, and the takeover of LA is likely to be repeated in other cities throughout the US.

There are further ICE raids planned for cities like New York, Seattle and Chicago, while protests against what is happening in LA are erupting across the country.

Trump, meanwhile, gave a provocative speech to US army soldiers at North Carolina’s Fort Bragg on Tuesday, in which he suggested the US is being “destroyed by invasion and third-world lawlessness”. He described protesters in LA as a “vicious and violent mob”, as well as “animals”. And he warned that “we will not allow an American city to be invaded and conquered by a foreign enemy”.

The hundreds of US army soldiers gathered cheered in agreement with their commander-in-chief’s repeated threats toward members of the domestic population, which has sent shockwaves through the leftwing US commentariat.

The US president’s rabble-rousing speech was delivered ahead of the gigantic military procession that he has organised for Washington DC on Saturday, 14 June, to coincide with the US Army’s 250th birthday and his own 79th.

The military parade, the largest procession in American history, will involve 6,700 soldiers and a swag of tanks, vehicles, jets, marching bands and two mules, and this display of military might is the type of show that’s expected to be put on by dictatorships in countries like North Korea.

Get out now, if you can

The Australian defence minister does not seem to have considered that Trump’s AUKUS review being announced just after his government has twice stepped out of line with its US masters are linked.

The ABC reported on Thursday that a potential meeting between Trump and our PM at next week’s G7 summit may not eventuate after Australia sanctioned two Israeli officials, following the lead of the UK, France and Canada. And as the US president has a habit of throwing out diplomatic courtesy when dealing with foreign leaders, there’s much speculation as to what could occur if it happens.

Along with a chorus of others, Greens Senator David Shoebridge has called for Australia to launch its own review of the AUKUS deal. And he’s further suggested that the nation should review its entire military alliance with the United States, including the US intelligence gathering base Pine Gap, which is located in the centre of this country and is Washington’s most important base outside of the US.

Shoebridge has also warned that as Trump sends in the troops to LA, there are currently 2,500 US marines stationed in Garramilla-Darwin. This arrangement is part of the 2014 Force Posture Agreement, which further sees the Australian and US air forces becoming increasingly interoperable, and it provides the US with access to dozens of local bases, which it can take control to upgrade.

Independent Senator Jacquie Lambie has suggested that if the US is reviewing AUKUS, then Australia should threaten to deny US personnel access to Pine Gap and give Washington seven days’ notice to remove its marines from the Top End.

However, the only issue with this would be, in the manner in which the Trump administration has been acting over its second term in office, such threats may sound like a declaration of war to the US president, and as Marles loves to brag that the US military’s force posture “in Australia involves every domain”, this means it could potentially launch a war upon Australia from local soil.